Demand Signal Ladder
Climb from felt conviction to observable behaviour before scaling
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 90%
The Demand Signal Ladder turns intuition into a sequence of increasingly concrete observations. Harary treats a strong bodily response as a useful first sign, but his examples show that conviction becomes actionable when behaviour supports it. He noticed children making and playing with Devil Sticks before Spin Master produced its version. After Paw Patrol aired, he repeatedly searched Instagram for birthday cakes featuring the characters and watched the count rise. In retail, he used disappearing stock and week-to-week shelf movement as a fast indicator, while full, unchanged shelves signalled failure. These signals form a ladder: internal pull, existing behaviour, prototype response, repeated organic adoption, and commercial movement. A founder can climb the ladder without pretending any single indicator proves the whole case, then commit more resources as independent behaviours become stronger and more consistent.
Origin
Extracted from Habits & Hustle, where Harary connected intuition with observed play, social fan behaviour, and retail inventory movement across several Spin Master products.
Core principles
- 01Instinct can start an investigation but cannot finish it
- 02Behaviour is stronger evidence than stated enthusiasm
- 03Repeated organic signals reveal growing attachment
- 04Inventory movement is clearer than shelf presence
- 05Scale only when progressively stronger signals agree
How to run it
- 1
Register the internal signal
Notice whether an idea creates strong excitement, curiosity, or resistance in your body. Use that response as permission to investigate, not as proof of demand.
Pro tip Write down what specifically creates the pull so you can test that feature.
Watch out Do not mistake personal conviction for customer evidence.
- 2
Find existing behaviour
Look for people already approximating the product, solving the problem themselves, or repeating the underlying play pattern. Behaviour that predates your offer lowers the amount of demand you need to invent.
Pro tip Observe what people do without being prompted.
Watch out A trend noticed once may be noise rather than a durable pattern.
- 3
Put something usable in front of them
Create the smallest prototype that lets people demonstrate interest through action. Pitch and show it broadly enough to get varied responses.
Pro tip Make the prototype smaller again if cost is blocking contact with users or buyers.
Watch out Compliments are weaker than use, purchase, sharing, or repeat engagement.
- 4
Track organic attachment
Watch for unprompted signs that people are incorporating the product into their lives. Measure whether those signs grow across repeated checks.
Pro tip Choose a signal tied to the product's role, such as fan creations for a children's character.
Watch out Do not rely on a single viral example.
- 5
Verify commercial movement
Check whether inventory, orders, or usage actually moves between observations. Compare the same channel at different times rather than celebrating distribution alone.
Pro tip In retail, an emptying shelf can be more informative than a prominent full display.
Watch out Stockouts caused by poor supply are not automatically evidence of strong demand.
- 6
Scale with converging evidence
Commit more time and capital when several levels of the ladder point in the same direction. Keep monitoring because early success can reverse.
Pro tip Seek a second independent signal before making a major increase in commitment.
Watch out Do not let one past hit create the hubris that every new launch will work.
In the wild
Harary noticed children playing with Devil Sticks in Toronto schoolyards and making versions themselves. Spin Master used its existing factory to create a prototype, took it to the New York Toy Fair, and entered major toy retailers through representatives. The product took off after shipment, and the company manufactured and shipped about 1.5 million units that year.
→ Observed grassroots behaviour became a prototype and then measurable retail demand.
During Paw Patrol's first months on air, Harary repeatedly searched Instagram for birthday cakes decorated with its characters. He saw more and more families choosing the theme, which indicated that children were forming an attachment strong enough to enter family celebrations before the toy line had fully demonstrated its potential.
→ Growing unprompted fan behaviour gave Harary an early signal that the franchise was connecting.
Common mistakes
Treating instinct as validation
A bodily sense can justify a test, but it does not establish market demand. Climb to behavioural and commercial signals before scaling.
Confusing shelf space with sales
A full shelf may mean the product is not moving. Revisit the channel and compare inventory over time.
Scaling from one signal
One enthusiastic response or social post can mislead. Look for convergence across use, organic attachment, and commercial movement.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for founders evaluating consumer products, entertainment properties, or other ideas with observable use signals.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when customers cannot safely reveal demand through a prototype, purchase, usage, or public behaviour.
From the episode
Episode 571: Ronnen Harary: The Bite-Sized Decisions That Built a Billion-Dollar Company From Nothing
Ronnen Harary