New-Utility Market Reframe
Size the behaviour your product creates, not the category it replaces
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 96%
Conventional market sizing starts with historical category sales and assumes a new entrant can capture only a fraction. That fails when the product changes the customer job. Siminoff contrasts a conventional doorbell, purchased mainly when one breaks or a house is built, with a connected security device people actively want on their front door. The framework first identifies the old purchase trigger, then defines the new utility and the additional occasions it creates. The resulting market is sized around changed behaviour rather than replacement demand. This does not justify ignoring evidence; it changes which evidence matters. The output is a testable category thesis explaining why adoption can exceed the legacy market without pretending the future is certain.
Origin
Shark Tank investors viewed Doorbot as an expensive doorbell in a small replacement market. Siminoff instead saw a connected security product that could create a multibillion-dollar category, much as Uber expanded travel beyond the historical taxi market.
Core principles
- 01Historical demand measures the old utility, not a new behaviour
- 02A changed customer job can expand a small legacy category
- 03Past-data forecasts miss orthogonal futures
- 04Concrete usage scenarios are stronger than inherited labels
How to run it
- 1
Expose the inherited category
Write down the existing category, its sales volume, and the assumptions behind that estimate.
Pro tip Ask what label a sceptical investor would put on the product.
Watch out Do not silently treat the inherited label as the product's true customer job.
- 2
Map old purchase triggers
Identify the limited events that cause customers to buy the legacy product today.
Pro tip Separate replacement purchases from genuinely discretionary demand.
- 3
Define the new utility
State what the product lets customers accomplish that the legacy product does not.
Pro tip Describe the outcome in customer language, not technical features.
Watch out A feature difference without a changed job does not create a new market.
- 4
Find new purchase occasions
List who would buy, why they would buy now, and what behaviour changes if the utility works.
Watch out Keep hypotheses distinct from observed demand.
- 5
Test the category thesis
Use prototypes, pre-sales, and usage evidence to determine whether customers respond to the new job rather than the old label.
Pro tip Compare customer language with the category language used by analysts.
Watch out Do not use visionary market sizing to excuse weak customer response.
In the wild
A conventional analysis counts replacement doorbells and concludes that a $200 device has a narrow ceiling. The team reframes the product around remote presence and household safety, then tests whether people buy it despite having a working doorbell. Pre-sales and sustained demand support a new security category rather than a premium replacement doorbell.
→ The market thesis expands from replacement hardware to connected home security.
A mobility founder avoids treating historical taxi revenue as the full ceiling. The product's convenience may cause people to replace trips they previously made by car, public transport, or not at all. The founder tests those new occasions before presenting a broader market estimate.
→ Market sizing follows changed travel behaviour rather than taxi share alone.
Common mistakes
Sizing only the old category
Using legacy sales as an absolute ceiling assumes the new product preserves the old customer job.
Calling every feature a category
A larger market requires evidence of changed behaviour, not merely a novel feature or ambitious story.
Is it for you?
Best for
Founders assessing a product that changes why, when, or how customers use an established object or service.
Not ideal for
Incremental products whose demand and purchase frequency closely match the existing category.
From the transcript
“when you follow data, it can be so wrong. And this is where opportunities are going to exist for entrepreneurs as we get more lazy…”
“But when did someone buy a doorbell? When it broke.”
“what happens if you came out with something that people wanted on their front door now what's the market size it turns out the market…”
From the episode
Episode 555: Jamie Siminoff: Why "Acting Like a CEO" Killed More Startups Than Failure Ever Did
Jamie Siminoff